Monday, July 21, 2008
The Next Big Thing. Actually, Several.
I don't know Paul Graham from Graham Crackers, but I gather that he's involved with something like a venture capital firm. On this page, he lists several conceptual areas where he would be interested in funding projects -- if the projects were truly worthwhile, and not just a quick flash for some cash. (Like that? I just made it up.) It's worth looking at. More than once, I found myself nodding, saying yeah, we DO need that....
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I was terribly unmoved by this list of "next big things". Very few of them could be developed into anything resembling a business. "Making your email box into a 'to do' list". "A dumbed down browser for Grandmas to share baby pictures". Come on!
Maybe its because it seems to be all about software technology, and I have seen so much software come and go, with the usual year of unproductivity every time you introduce a new set up. I note that his bias is towards the office which like, totally does not need another software package, whereas we need more systems involving forward looking radar and ways to stay awake which will prevent road accidents, (fourty one thousand people die every year. http://www-fars.nhtsa.dot.gov/Main/index.aspx Looks like a "need" to me, and a little more important than a way to compete with EBay, or a dating service!
I note the startling absence of the following
a national dna data base for rape victims. Currently thousands of samples are sitting in freezer trucks awaiting processing, and just as many crimes are going unsolved.
Most dental records are not "on line", or even stored in computers. Lack of scanning cabability perhaps?
rfid's implanted into institutionalized persons...to reduce case work loads, and to identify missing persons who turn up either dead or wandering. We microchip our dogs, but not our sex trade workers. Hmmm.....
And I also note that no computer has ever raised dough to make bread. Now THAT would make the blessed thing worthwhile.
Oh sorry, that was me, posting on what turned out to be my gmail identity...grin!
I can't agree with that. Certainly, some of them are almost whimsical, and others don't reflect a business so much as a concept that could become part of a business. Equally certain, much of it is software oriented. But I think you're missing the point. This isn't a list of the most important things that society needs. (I doubt we could come up with such a list; if we were lucky, your list and mine might have some common elements, though they'd almost surely not be in the same locations). This list is a call for experimentation and creativity. A similar list could be made for any discipline - software is just the sexiest.
More than once, I've wondered what the proper role of government ought to be in encouraging and promoting such creativity. I am a little apprehensive about anything that starts in government and ends up in private industry; theres a great opportunity for wasting 'taxpayers dollars' (is there any other kind?) and for greed and skimming. I think of patented genomes, there. Yet there are many things that no one wants to do because the upfront costs are so high, or the potential payback is so minimal -- orphan drugs as an example. And then there are the technologies that simply aren't sexy -- transportation used to be that, and mostly still is, though its certainly more attractive than it was twelve months ago.
This guys focus is simple -- show me a business proposal that will make me money. It would be nice if it was a 'blue ocean' concept, too.
Yes, but can it make bread?
Your right, though...I guess I did miss the point. As a reasonably successful business person I too am more prepared to put my money into something which can return money rather than serve any particular "need". My stock portfolio is not weighted with wind power, hydrogen fuels or police/military gadgets. For that matter, it is not weighted with "fair trade" or "green" businesses....though it certainly could be.
Now if I could find a nice open source cad program which can automatically adapt to the cnc of various alternative machines......
THAT, I would put my money into!
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