I take it as a given that if we drilled for oil right now, it would not do any good to short-term oil prices in the United States.
Some have said that it wouldn't do any good long term, either, as oil is a global market, and it flows to the highest bidder, but I don't believe that. If I find oil in my back yard, it won't be sold to slake the fuel thirst of the Chinese (although the possibility that the drilling might be done, and the oil owned, by a company with international allegiances does cast that into some doubt).
And although I don't know how long it would take to take a barrel of oil and transform it into gas at the pump, I'm willing to believe that it takes a while -- say, two to five years. If we started right now, we wouldn't see any relief in gas prices for two years -- or whatever the minimum is. Remember, the gas industry is the people who mastered the art of charging at the pump now for increases in the price of oil that's not even out of the ground yet. I can easily see them increasing costs at the pump now on the possibility that they'll have to spend money later. Drilling's not a panacea, and it could even make things worse -- at least, in the short term.
But does that mean we ought not to drill, period? I'm beginning to think that no, it doesn't. Not necessarily.
We should not drill if doing so would mean putting off research and action towards alternative fuel sources. Oh, look, a glass of water -- okay, pour that on the fire, and we'll just put off calling the Fire Department till later. We like short term solutions and cringe at long term ones, so if the promise of increased oil in two to five years would mean less urgency on the research front today, I'd vote against it. On the other hand, not everything can be switched to alternative fuels. Nuclear-powered 747s? Solar powered tugboats? Not likely. We're going to need fuel for them. If it can be supplied or augmented from fuel we control -- good. If not -- well, we'd be no worse off.
I think that we ought to look into drilling. Without fanfare, without raised expections. And, oh yes -- without speculation. I suspect that pretty soon -- within, say, the next two or three years -- we're going to see some serious attention being paid to the way that oil gets into this country. We're going to start treating it the way we treat the phone system -- something that affects our livelihoods and our infrastructure. That can't be left to the viscissitudes and vagaries of the market. I hestitate to say Controlled -- visions of the Soviet Five Year Plans in my head -- but carefully watched, yes.
Otherwise, we could really be screwed.
1 comment:
There was a nuclear powered B36, in the late 1950's. It even flew, once, on nuclear power!
The problems were many - not least of which was the quantity of shielding required around the crew!
Still, it showed it could be done. Can you imagine anyone even trying that, now? LOL!
Drilling in the US would be done by private companies that would sell to the highest bidder. If there was a requirement, say "50% has to go to the Home market" - prices for that 50% would rise disproportionally. (Politicians would defend it, and so on.)
Some drilling should be done - there's a lot of nodding donkeys out in the fields of Oklahoma, for instance. Off the shore of New Jersey, and some other places. But it should be done with an eye to preserving the beauty of the nation, too. No drilling near Arches, or in Alaska, for instance.
Besides - people shouldn't get annoyed at the Saudi's. We import more oil from Canada than we do from Saudi Arabia.
Carolyn Ann
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