Rope a Dope

I just read an interesting article from Seed Magazine on some research being done on the way that the brain evaluates alternatives.

The article's based on the work of a fellow named Read Montague, and what it says, boiled down, is that the brain uses a substance called dopamine to tell itself to expect a pleasurable reward. It's along the lines of bells and the Pavlovian response. Based on that research, he says that the brain uses the same technique to create what-if scenarios to evaluate the probable result of alternate actions to prior events -- for example, what if I had invested ten thousand dollars instead of one thousand; what if I'd dated this girl instead of that one. An extension of that concept is evaluation of real-time what-if scenarios -- what if this person is lying to me, what if that light turns red just before I get there.

I don't agree with all of the conclusions -- the writeup of how the ability to create what-if scenarios leads to financial bubbles seems implausible to me -- but it's an fun read. I'm always impressed by people who can do this kind of extrapolation.