Amusement

I was looking for some amusement this evening, but what I found was substantially different.

My wife and daughter have gone to see a play -- not sure which one -- in Lancaster, which is about fifty minutes from here. I didn't care to go (partially because its going to be four women and their daughters; didn't quite think that I would fit in). I spent some time reading, and then I went downstairs to watch TV. Nothing was on, but I came across a short squib of Bush and the international finance ministers all sidling grimly into the White House. I thought about him trying to give them guidance and direction, and I was not cheered by the image. So, I put in a CD of West Wing, Season 2, and found myself watching Josiah Bartlett as he came to realize that he had not just a problem on his hands, when people started to learn that he had MS and didn't tell anyone, but a full blown crisis, with lawyers and disbarment and possibly impeachment on the horizon. His acting is good, unlike Bush, so I watched it to the end, but after all of it, I felt pretty gloomy. This is not what amusement is supposed to do for you.

I've said that we're in pretty good financial shape, and I truly believe it. We own our house, and we have no debt. The last time I looked -- and like most people who don't have their own executive jet, I am trying very hard not to look -- we had enough money in a combination of cash and stocks to be the equivalent of our income for about ten years. My guess is that that's down to about eight years now, with the current level of the market. Additionally, we've both got a retirement package (I've actually got two, though one is pretty small), and Social Security. I could invoke my retirement payouts now, if I wanted to. I believe (using the definition of 'belief' as something you act on as if it were real, though you cannot prove that it is) that this crisis will go on depressing the stock market for about two years. In a sense, I'm making that up; I don't know, don't have any specific knowledge, and certainly don't have any special expertise. But thats what I think. I'm assuming that in two years, the stock market will have staggered back to where it was about three months ago. That means that any income or gains we would have made for two years -- not just stock, but cash, too -- won't occur. Thats not an insubstantial amount, but it wouldn't kill us. We might have to forgo major elective expenses, like a vacation trip, but that would be about it. We've been telling our daughter that she'll have to pay for her own college time, as we did; we don't intend to skip on helping her, though she doesn't know that, so if it turns out that we have to, she won't be disappointed. Its also possible that my wife's company may decide to terminate her; they were planning on layoffs before all of this started, and I can easily see them accelerating that timetable. That would mean that the eight years I mentioned might shrink to six, but again, we ought to be okay. We won't be destitute. Many people will be, and not just in six or eight years, but now. We won't. I have to remember that. The net effect will be debilitating, but we should come out of it okay. Not as good as we would have been, of course, even if Bush does say that the economy will be stronger afterward. I think he's talking through his hat on that one, incidentally. He does that, as you've likely noticed. But still: okay.

All of this means that though I can't be cheerful, I should not be pessimistic. We'll be okay. I believe this, intellectually. Emotionally is another matter. In that, I don't think I'm alone. I watched a chipper person on the tube say that people with marketable and moveable skills should look into fields where they don't work now; for example, a finance person might look for a auto company that needs a finance person. It seems that these things are always easier in theory than in practice. I trust 'employment counselors' -- not at all. I think very, very few of them know what the heck they're doing, and even less have actual insights and helpful information. For the rest, you might as well read Wikipedia. I say all of this because, I've started thinking about working again - for obvious reasons. Don't need to, but doing so - even if nothing comes of it - makes me feel better.