Henry Kissinger and I don't, as a rule, hang out together. Never were the days when we'd sit by the fire, sipping mulled cider and contemplate the vagaries of political discourse. Though I'm sure that he's written an autobiography -- and possibly two or three -- I've yet to search for it.
But he did say something once that I really liked, and that, as I read articles about the current state of Libya, I think about. (It's possible that this is one of those quotes that actually was said by Henry Ford, talking about automatic transmissions, but I'm going with Henry on this one.) As I read articles that say that the Arab League has supported the idea of a no-fly zone over Libya, and that this therefore increases the pressure on Western countries to get involved - how, I really don't know - I think What has this got to do with us? Where's the benefit to us if we get involved? What's the cost? After all -- countries don't have friends. They have interests. What's ours?
Do I give a rat's patoot if Gadhaffi survives or not? Nope. Do I think that a replacement regime is likely to be friendlier to us? Not particularly. Do I think that ARAMCO might be able to seize some oil for us? No, and even if they did, I don't think the price of oil needs to be pushed down. I don't like paying a bunch for it, but I think that this kind of boost has been coming for a while, and we need to be getting used to the idea of getting off oil, so why not now? (Which was never the logic about health care for any prior President - that it needed to be done, so why not now? - and is why this one is in so much political trouble, I think. Blew too much capital for little immediate benefit to him. But anyway....)
We need to act according to what's going to benefit us the most or damages us the least. Ideology should have almost nothing to do with it. Do we have friends? Yes, we really do, and we need to help them. But last I looked, Libya hadn't become a Facebook friend of ours, and we ought not to act as if it is. An interest, nothing more.
So what's ours?
2 comments:
Our interest is in making sure that Libya doesn't devolve into an unwinnable civil war. Considering its recent history, it's in our interests to ensure that the government is democratic and not likely to bring down any more airliners over Scotland (or elsewhere). If Ghaddafi (sp?) stays in power, the repercussions would be monumental as he lashes out at any and all he perceives as "against" him. Like all demagogues, "against him" has a very loose and flexible definition.
Also, the world is a bit wary of ending up with another Darfur. As the powers that could stop such a thing stand by saying "not our problem", or "oh my, it's so horrible, isn't it?" they get hammered by the voters who think it is basic human interest to be involved. Like Bosnia in the '90's - Bill had to fight tooth and nail to get Americans in there. Because Europe couldn't, and wouldn't, get its hands dirty, it was up to America to end that conflict.
Isolationists, such as Ron Paul, fail to see that because America is the global cop, it almost has a duty to be involved! After all, it's difficult to say you're promoting democracy when you sit back and let a pro-democracy movement become an Islamist one, and ultimately get hammered. (Not saying you're being isolationist, Bill!) In a conflict like Libya, America's interests go beyond the oil; they are historical and they are include counter-balancing other (would-be?) powers. America's interests also include not creating another Afghanistan, and stopping the strongmen dictators from using Libya as a template for their own anti-reform efforts.
Nations do have interests, but what those interests are is steadily being redefined. As you might expect, that's a source of domestic political tension. (To put it mildly!) :-)
I'm not at all sure about that. If they have an unwinnable civil war, and we are not involved, why it it our problem? I grant that if he wins, things are going to be very grim for the residents, but I don't have reason to believe that if the rebels win, things will be all that much better.
I suppose I'm just tired of my country being the one that has to be the world's cop/nurse/defender. I know that, on the large scale, we get payback in strategic influence, but I don't see where that influence is buying us much, of late.
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