What I'm hearing is surprisingly positive -- the number of American deaths is down (above zero, so too many for me, but still....); some areas are experiencing normalcy (which has happened before, and gone away, but still...); there's even indications that the terrorist organization is having problems (it only takes one fanatic, but still...). So what's going on? Is it possible that this surge thing actually IS working? Or would it have happened anyway?
I don't doubt in the least that Bush would grab the credit, or selectively put out the truth to make it appear that he was right, after all... and I am sure that no matter what happens, there will be someone who can prove that it was, of course, inevitable. But it does appear that things maybe, possibly, might be changing.
So whats going on over there?
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It took more than 12 years to re-build Germany, and about the same in Japan, maybe a bit more. A friend of mine just went on a trip down through Kosovo, and tells me that they are all getting along just fine now. My old Captain just got back from Sierre Leone, and tells me that the whole blood diamonds thing is like, so last century. Though the gangs are still there and stirring up trouble. Liberia took 8 years to recover this far from civil war, and they figure it has another decade to go.
Iraq was and still is a mugs game. The results over there will happen whether or not you have hawks or doves running your country.
A mugs game? I believe that means a game that an intelligent person ought not to participate in unless they're good at trickery and deceit. If so, that suggests that we ought not to be there, because, though we're getting better, we aren't generally known as a wily, sly country, one that values mind games as highly as sheer strength.
Oddly enough, I dreamt about that last night -- though, in my dream, it was Superman who was getting his head handed to him by an opponent who was physically weaker (who isn't?) but who could trick him into doing things that were actually against his own interest. But at least Superman would know his own interest -- I doubt we do. Sometimes I think 'Okay, suppose Russia was in our position, what would they do?', and I think 'These days, stomp the living hell out of it, take the oil, and post a permanent garrison'. We wouldn't -- I think.
Yup, you got it! Its a mugs game...the dice are crooked, the wrong people are in charge, and there are NO clear rules of engagement, or definition of victory. This lack of definition is interpreted as "we are boy scouts with no duplicitous intent", which of course is the normal refuge for people whose schemes lie in ruins.
One definition would be "victory lies in walking away, letting it be." Another might be "Lets fix what we broke, and then get the puck out of here." I rather like the Russian definition you present...it would work just fine.
Just keep in mind that ANY victory will have long reaching consequences. So choose your victory carefully. Because it is too late to pick "do nothing".
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