Okay, that's not really the name. But here's some numbers, from today's Washington Post:
2018 - The year that Social Security payments will exceed the system's annual tax receipts, according to the middle of three SSA forecasts. The deficit would be made up by drawing down on the Social Security trust fund.
73 - Without changes, the percentage of promised benefits that that Social Security would be able to pay once the trust fund is empty in 2042. (Funds would come from ongoing tax receipts.)
69 - Without changes, the percentage of projected benefits that Social Security would be able to pay in 2078.
Have to admit, I don't know what they mean by 'promised benefits' or 'projected benefits' (already committed? expected to be asked for?) . But I thought these were interesting numbers, nonetheless.
2 comments:
Bill,
These are indeed interesting numbers. I would love to see them run with the Republican's planned benefit cuts (where they are adjusting benefit's to the cost of goods (consumer price index) instead of the current system of adjusting them to wage increases. From what I've read, that will reduce benefit payouts by 25%, which seems as though it will allow the system to run longer... Oh dear, does this mean I'm going to have to brush up my economics?
Also, I wanted to direct you to my new writing project, which is still in its nascent stages and so not being publicized yet. http://www.storytellerdoll.blogspot.com
I'd love to know what you think.
Best,
Amy
I know that it isn't as clean and cut/dried as I would like -- even simple concepts like 'the middle of the three estimates' can cause heartburn to some people. They'd like to think that there is one 'true' forecast. I don't think that they're dumb for wanting that -- I want it too!
I am slowly reading through the WP articles on the topic, trying to get a sense of whats commonly accepted and what is up for grabs. The nice part is that some of the authors shout their biases right up front -- as with the fellow who feels that it isn't SS thats the problem, its the lack of money coming in from taxes, which stems from the tax cuts. As it happens, I agree that the tax cuts were a bad idea (okay, I haven't given it a lot of thought, but it just 'seems wrong'), but whether they are or are not seems to me irrelevant to the discussion of SS's health. Its not a variable -- which is of course one of the proofs, if any were needed, that I'm not a politician.
You don't have to brush up on your economics. You just have to pin numbers down and then crank them. Its the pinning of the numbers that is so darn slippery -- like pinning jello to the wall. But it can be done. First, you freeze it......
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