Friday, November 16, 2012

Stay or Switch

I'm one of those who just doesn't get why the classic Monte Hall problem works that way. I understand the logic, but I can't accept it.  I even wrote  a very simple program to try the 'recommended' solution, and it works - but I don't get why.

Even this site, Stay or Switch, can't help me.  But it's fun to try. 

1 comment:

STAG said...

I like the odds with a hundred doors, ninety nine goats and one car. Switching will win 99 percent of the time.

The cards have no memory. Most people do not have a good handle on betting odds. Witness he success of the Casino up the road.

I use this example a lot when I give a lecture about statistics. The important part of the lecture is not the math...the math is clear and not hard to understand. However, it is what you said yourself...it doesn't "seem" to make sense, so you get into a state of confusion. A "cognitive dissonance". This cognitive dissonance is what casinos, talk show doctors, psychics and churches need to survive.
Some of the "TED Talks" and the "Amazing Meeting Talks" deal with this phenomon rather extensively. You can google them as easily as I can...you WON'T be sorry you did.